Kouzijiao (603589): Expected growth continues inside and outside the province

Kouzijiao (603589): Expected growth continues inside and outside the province

1H19 results are in line with our expectations. Kouzi Warehouse announced 1H19 results with revenue of 24.

2 trillion, with an increase of 12.

0%, net profit attributable to mother 8.

9 trillion, the same increase of 22.

0%, as expected.

In the case of a high base in the same period last year, single quarter and second quarter revenues / attributable net profits increased.

3% / 23.

0%, the income side increased significantly from the first quarter, mainly due to channel replenishment and the rapid growth of sub-high-end prices.

Development Trend The product structure in the province continues to upgrade, and the channel network sinks deeply.

1) This year, the company began to strategically recognize the promotion of the next high-end price, and recently launched positioning 200?
Early summer / mid-autumn collection of 400 yuan, two major single items, combined Kouzi warehouse 10 years / 20 years, 200?
The full product layout of 600 yuan can deeply meet the 深圳桑拿网 demand for sub-high-end consumption upgrades in the province. We expect the company’s sub-high-end revenue to increase by 36% / 30% in 2019/20.

2) Channels in the province continued to sink strongly. In the first half of the year, the number of dealers in the province increased by 32, most of which came from the independence of county-level distributors. This step will help the company to further consolidate the market foundation and promote sustained and steady revenue growth.

In the first half of the year, the revenue from markets outside the province accelerated by 27% to 4.

7 trillion, continued in-depth cultivation of key markets began to pay off.

In the first half of the year, the net increase of dealers outside the province was 0, and continued to optimize and adjust the dealer team. The increase in revenue did not come from simple investment promotion, but the market that was cultivated in the early stages gradually grew, including Beijing, Tianjin, and Xi’an.

We expect the company to continue to develop the key markets in a point-by-point manner, and to promote the nationwide distribution of network channels, which will drive the rapid growth of revenue outside the province.

The marketing expenses began to increase moderately, which is beneficial to the company’s long-term development in the two dimensions of sub-high-end prices and markets outside the province.

The sales expense ratio in the first half of the year increased slightly to zero.

29ppt, the first increase since the continuous decline in 1H14. The main increase items are advertising costs and personnel expenditures, which are used to strengthen brand promotion and marketing.

Earnings Forecasts and Estimates We have raised our sales expense forecasts, but the final profit forecast remains largely unchanged due to better-than-expected gross margins, taxes and surcharges.

As the industry evaluation hub moves upwards, the target price is raised by 6.

5% to 83 yuan, corresponding to 26 in 2019/20.

5x / 23.

0x P / E, the current price corresponds to 2019/20 20.

8x / 18.

0x P / E, with 27% growth potential in target price, maintain Outperform rating.

Risks If Anhui’s economic growth rate is obvious, the company’s revenue at the next high-end price may not meet expectations.


Gemdale Group (600383) September 2019 sales data review: Sales continue to increase significantly and exceed 200 billion for the first time

Gemdale Group (600383) September 2019 sales data review: Sales continue to increase significantly and exceed 200 billion for the first time
Event: Gemdale Group announced September sales data, and in September the company achieved a contract amount of 250.10,000 yuan, an increase of 38 in ten years.7%; Achieved contract area of 135.20,000 square meters, an increase of 46 in ten years.6%.From January to September, the company gradually realized the contracted amount of 1,418.50,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.7%; Achieve cumulative contracted area of 710.30,000 square meters, an annual increase of 22.4%; In January-September, the company added 741.90,000 square meters, an increase of 28 in ten years.3%; total land price 517.800 million, down 11 every year.2%. Opinion: Sales increased sharply in September, + 39% per year. It is expected that the annual sales are likely to exceed 200 billion, which is over + 23%. The company achieved a contract amount of 250 in September.100 million, an increase of 51.9%, a high base of 38 in the second half.7%; Achieved contract area of 135.20,000 square meters, an increase of 74.9%, an increase of 46 per year.6%; average selling price of 18,499 yuan / flat, down 13 chain.1%, a decline of 5 per year.4%.From January to September, the company has accumulated a total of 1,418 contracts.50,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.7%, an increase of 1 pct from January to August; the contracted area of 710 is gradually realized.30,000 square meters, an annual increase of 22.4%; the cumulative average selling price is 19,972 yuan / square meter, an annual increase of 9.2%.Since the company’s total soil reserves only increased by about 300 per year in 14-16, the current round began to replenish stocks vigorously in 2017H2, and the land acquisition amount accounted for 74% in the second half of the year. Therefore, 18H1 started to accelerate, and 18H2 available for sale gradually accumulated.Acceleration has accelerated, and the company’s sales have continued to rebound for one year since September 18.Against the background of better first- and second-tier sales in 2019, the company’s adherence to first- and second-tier cities and active construction will result in a comparative advantage in sales and sales flexibility. Considering that it spent 1,419 trillion in 3Q19 and 56.2 billion in 18Q4, a total of 198.1 billion US dollarsIt is expected that annual sales will likely exceed US $ 200 billion, exceeding + 23%. In September, the land acquisition improved, and the focus was still on the first and second tiers and the surrounding metropolitan area. The amount of land acquisition accounted for 5% of the sales amount.And the metropolitan area.In September, the company newly added 41.30,000 square meters, down 63.6%, an annual increase of 1192.2%; corresponding to the total land price of 12.400 million, down 85.9%, an annual increase of 931.7%; the amount of land acquisition accounted for 5% of the sales amount, a decrease of 48pct month on month, compared with 50 the previous year.8% down 45.9pct; average floor price is RMB 2,996 / sqm, down 61 from the previous month.2%, a decline of 20 per year.2%, a decrease of 68 from 9,529 yuan / sqm.6%, taking the average price of land as the average selling price for the month 16.2%, a drop of 20pct from the previous month, 51 from the previous year.5% down 35.3 points.From January to September, the company added a total of 741 planning areas.90,000 square meters, an increase of 28 in ten years.3%; corresponding to the total land price of 517.800 million, down 11 every year.2%, taking up land accounts for 36% of diesel.5%, 50 compared to the previous year.8% down 14.3pct; the average floor price is 6,980 yuan / square meter, and it will fall by 30.8%, taking the average price of land as the average selling price of 34.9%, compared with 51 the previous year.5% down 16.6 points.At the average selling price 2.0 million yuan / Pingdu company in the first nine months of cumulative cumulative value of 1,482 trillion, higher than the sales amount of 1,419 trillion in the same period. Investment suggestion: Sales continue to increase sharply, and it is expected to reach over 成都桑拿网 200 billion. Maintain “Strong Push” rating. Gemdale Group is one of the attempts of the old-fashioned leading real estate companies. The 30-year stable history and high proportion of insurance capital holdings show the past balanced development and high dividendsUnder the focus on the first and second tiers + 18 years of low sales + start of construction to actively promote sufficient sales, the company’s 19-year sales flexibility is better.At the end of 19H1, 80% of the company’s total soil reserves were on the first and second tiers, and the advance receipts covered a high of one.8 times to ensure the stable release of future performance.We maintain the company’s profit forecast for 2019-21 to 2.24, 2.69 yuan and 3.17 yuan, corresponding to only 5 in 19/20 PE.4/4.5 times, the index rate is as high as 5.0%, maintain target 四川耍耍网 price of 17.76 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” level. Risk reminder: Real estate industry policy tightens more than expected


Zhongke Sanhuan (000970): 1Q19 results meet expectations; demand growth potential

Zhongke Sanhuan (000970): 1Q19 results meet expectations; demand growth potential

The first quarter of 2019 results are in line with expectations. The first quarter of 2019 results announced by the Third Ring of China Science and Technology: operating income9.

200 million, down 2 a year.

The net profit attributable to the parent company was 44.22 million yuan, an increase of 4 per 南宁桑拿 year.

8%, a decrease of 27% from the previous month, which is equivalent to a profit of 0.

04 yuan, in line with our expectations, after deducting non-return to the mother’s net profit of 40.11 million yuan, an increase of 1 over.

2%.

The smallest improvement in profit growth in the first quarter of 19th was mainly due to the increase in investment income + fair value change income, growth, and excess decline in financial expenses.

Comments: 1) Rare earth prices have fallen.

The new domestic average price of thorium oxide in the first quarter of 19 was 30.

550,000 yuan / ton, a decline of 10% each year, down 4% from the previous month.

2) Gross profit margin has decreased year by year.

In the first quarter of 19, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 19%, which decreased by 2 every year.

3ppt, 西安耍耍网 up 1 from the previous month.

9ppt.

3) In the first quarter of 19, the increase in management expenses increased by 11% / + 5.17 million yuan, a decrease of 52% month-on-month, and the management expense rate increased by +0.

7ppt to 5.

7%.

4) Financial expenses decreased by 45% / 17.75 million yuan in the first quarter of 19, mainly due to the decrease in foreign exchange losses, which increased by 33.81 million yuan.

5) In the first quarter of 19, asset impairment losses exceeded 400 million to -2.99 million yuan.

6) The total income from changes in fair value + investment income in the first quarter of 191 will increase by RMB 15.94 million per year.

7) The effective tax rate for 1Q19 is -5 for half a year.

7ppt, +3 from the previous quarter.

3ppt to 23%.

There is potential for growth in demand.

The sales of new energy vehicles in the first quarter increased by 109% per year, maintaining a rapid growth. We believe that the company’s new energy vehicle motors have been in the medium to long-term continuous growth space.

Rare earth fundamentals improved.

Year to date, the domestic price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide will drop by about 17%. Looking ahead, Myanmar’s rare earth imports may be restricted. We believe that the oversupply situation of the domestic rare earth industry will improve.

Earnings forecast We maintain our 2019/20 earnings forecast of 0.

20/0.

20 yuan unchanged.

Estimates and recommendations currently correspond to the company as a whole.

5/2.

5 times 2019/20 P / B.

We maintain our neutral rating and target price of 9.

5 yuan, corresponding to 2.

2/2.

2 times P / B in 2019/20, a 13% drop compared to the recent past.

Demand for risk magnetic materials fell short of expectations; rare earth prices fell more than expected.


Hang Seng Electronics (600570) In-depth report: Financial IT industry leader cloud transformation strategy helps achieve leapfrog development

Hang Seng Electronics (600570) In-depth report: Financial IT industry leader cloud transformation strategy helps achieve leapfrog development

The leading level is stable, continuous innovation improves core product competitiveness, and promotes the company’s performance growth.

Founded in Hangzhou in 1995, the company is a leading financial software and network service provider in China.

At present, many of the company’s core products have a market share of more than 70%, with wide technical barriers and through competitive advantages, the leader must be very stable.

The company achieved an unexpected growth in performance in 2018, mainly due to the new policies and regulations driving demand growth and the company’s personnel optimization and cost reduction.

The company has a well-known R & D investment, and the number of R & D personnel and R & D expenses are at the leading level.

At the same time, the company’s core employees’ participation in the “Innovative Business Subsidiary” plan also guarantees the company’s continuous innovation ability and further promotes the company’s performance growth.

A number of new financial policies have been introduced one after another, driving the continuous growth of financial IT demand, which has benefited the company.

At the same time, with the increasing demand for supervision and supervision technology, the need for upgrading and reforming financial IT systems has also emerged.

At the same time, new regulations on asset management, science and technology board, Shanghai-London Stock Connect, and access to external systems of securities firms are all the driving forces for financial IT demand.

The company currently has five major business needs, including changes in the financial system, the increase in financial products, the increase in financial customers, the need for product updates brought about by the development of IT technology itself, and the personalized needs of customers due to differentiated competition.

The long-term financial market is booming, and the number of financial institutions is increasing, which has led to more demand for financial IT services and software.

Traditional and innovative two-wheel drive, cutting-edge technology helps the company leapfrog development.

The expected overall assessment of the development of cutting-edge technologies such as cloud computing, big data, and artificial 深圳桑拿网 intelligence has introduced a number of encouraging policies.

The company keeps pace with the times, starting to adjust the business organization structure since 2013, and put forward the “Colorful Clouds” construction plan in 2014 to vigorously promote the company’s application in the Internet and cloud computing.

The 13 innovative subsidiaries established by the company have a good momentum of development. In 2018, 7 subsidiaries started to profit.

Among them, the investment robot developed by the subsidiary Whalt Network, Xiaowhing, is the world ‘s first live investment robot to work on CCTV two sets every day, helping small and medium pitchers to complete 5 million online teaching services, and at the same time Xiaowhing assists Tmall ElvesWith 1.1 million person-times of financial information services, it has opened up a whole new territory for the company’s development.

In addition, as of December 2018, the company has launched 16 artificial intelligence family products, and subsequent companies will continue to explore innovative products combining cutting-edge technologies such as blockchain, artificial intelligence, big data, financial engineering, high-performance computing, and so on.

Company profit forecast and estimation: We expect net profit attributable to mothers to be 6 in 2018-2020.

28, 8.

72 and 10.

52 trillion, the corresponding EPS is 1.

02, 1.

41 and 1.

70 yuan, the corresponding PE is 84.

12, 60.

62 and 50.

25 times.

Compared with the estimated level of comparable companies, taking into account the estimated premium and market activity of the company’s leading companies to improve the overall industry measurement level, the company’s PE in 2019 will be 75 times, corresponding to a 6-month target price of 105.

75 yuan, maintain “highly recommended” level.

Risk warning: The policy implementation fails to meet expectations; the capital market environment fails to meet expectations; product research and development and service innovations fall short of expectations.


Depth-Company-Vanke A (000002): Leader Steadily Still Diversified

Depth * Company * Vanke A (000002): Leading Steady and Still Diversified Business

In the first half of 2019, Vanke A achieved operating income of 1,393.

20,000 yuan, an increase of 31 in ten years.

5%; realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 29 in ten years.

8%; gross and net interest margins carried over are 36.

2% and 13.

8%, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.

8 and 1.

1 unit.

As an industry leader, Vanke has cultivated first-tier and second-tier cities in detail and has diversified business layouts. Its sales investment has grown steadily for a long period of time.

We predict that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 3.

61/4.

04/5.

05 yuan, corresponding to 19 years of PE7.

6x, maintain BUY rating.

Key points of the support level Revenue performance has increased simultaneously, and performance security has declined.

From January to June 2019, the company achieved operating income of 1,393.

20,000 yuan, an increase of 31 in ten years.

5%; net profit attributable to mother to 118.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 29 in ten years.

8%; gross and net interest margins carried over are 36.

2% and 13.

8%, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.

8 and 1.

1 single; implement ROE7.

35%, a year increase of 0.

59 uniforms.

The proportion of the company’s settlement amount equity decreased, and the minority shareholders’ equity surged to 69.

2%, we think it will be flat in the next few quarters.

The company achieved settlement income of 1,329 in the first six months.

900 million, an annual increase of 32.

2%; as the sales scale was higher than the settlement 杭州桑拿 scale, the outstanding amount sold amounted to 6,215.

5 trillion, an increase of 908 over the end of 18.

4 trillion, covering more than double the settlement amount in 18 years, fully guaranteeing future performance growth.

Sales have grown steadily, and investment strategies have tended to be cautious.

From January to June 2019, the company’s sales amount was 3,340.

0 billion, an average increase of 9 in half a year.

6%, sales area 2,150.1 Normal.

From January to June, the company acquired 54 new projects with a total planned construction area of 1,372.

80,000 countries, 69% of the equity, 88.

4% focus on first- and second-tier cities, and investment is relatively cautious.

At the end of the reporting period, the company had no total soil reserves1.

500 million cubic meters, 61% equity; saleable 杭州桑拿网 area 1.

1 billion cubic meters, corresponding to a saleable value of about 1.

70,000 yuan, covering 2018 sales 2.

8 times.

Completion actively promoted the speeding up of settlement and low financial health debt.

The company’s accumulated new construction area from January to June was 1,019.

4 General Motors, with a decline of 16% per year, and the rate of start to increase; the gradually completed area of 1,060 GM, an annual increase of 16%, accounting for 35% of the initial completion plan. It is expected that the completion in the second half of the year will accelerate and the settlement speed will increase simultaneously.

The company’s net debt ratio was 35 at the end of the reporting period.

0%, absolutely low in the industry.

As of the end of June, the company held 1,438 monetary funds.

700 million, short cash debt ratio of 2.

16. Debt repayment ability budget.

Diversified businesses develop together, and multiple industries lead the market.

In terms of diversified businesses, Vanke Property’s revenue for the first half of the year was 52.

80,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.

1%, actively expanding project resources and supplementing the project’s saturated income21.

64 ppm, an increase of 113 in ten years.

8%; long-term lease business has covered 35 cities, and gradually opened8.

20,000 rooms, with an average occupancy rate of 91% for mature projects; commercial real estate management area exceeding 1,360 for the whole population; 97% for mall occupancy; logistics and real estate business, has settled in 44 cities, acquired a wide range of 996 leaseable properties, mature projects for leaseThe rate is 92%.

It is estimated that based on the company’s sales and investment situation, we predict that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 3 respectively.

61/4.

04/5.

05 yuan, corresponding to 19 years of PE7.

6x, maintain BUY rating.

Main risks faced by ratings The sales scale of the real estate industry has expanded and financing has exceeded expectations.


Midea Group (000333): Steady business, determined to change

Midea Group (000333): Steady business, determined to change
Key points of the report The event describes Midea Group’s 2018 annual report: the company achieved substantial revenue of 2,596.65 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.87%, net profit attributable to 202.31 ppm, an increase of 17 in ten years.05%, to achieve EPS3.07 yuan; of which in the fourth quarter realized revenue of 539.08 million yuan, an increase of 0 in ten years.27%, achieving net profit attributable to 23.31 ppm, an increase of ten years.97%; the budget company plans to distribute 13 yuan (including tax) in cash for every 10 shares. Comment on the event The main business of home appliances performed steadily, and the revenue growth rate was in line with expectations: The sales boom in the second half of 2018 had an impact. The company’s revenue growth rate was high and low, so that it still achieved a large number of growth.The number of digits grew steadily, while KUKA was slightly under pressure in the short term.Considering that in the first quarter of 2019, driven by a positive price strategy, the company’s air-conditioning installation card growth performance was eye-catching, and refrigerators and washing machines and other businesses also continued to grow steadily. Under the overall influence, it is expected that the company’s overall revenue will achieve large growthSingle digit growth, the growth rate is more certain than the increase. In the fourth quarter, the gross profit margin improved and the profitability steadily increased: under the multiple factors such as average price uplink, reduced cost pressure, reduced amortization and improved exchange rate environment, the company’s gross profit margin increased significantly in the fourth quarter.66pct, which is increased by 2 each year in advance.50pct.In terms of expense ratios, although interest income has sometimes increased and financial expense ratios have improved, overall the expense ratios have continued to increase during the period.59pct, due to the decline in consolidated investment income and a higher base for asset disposal income in the same period last year, and other factors, 北京夜网 the company’s consolidated net attributable net income gradually increased under the combined influence.61pct to 7.79%. The operating quality is extremely good, and the second transformation is steadily advancing: the company’s own funds at the end of 2018 reached US $ 78.3 billion, an increase of 15 earlier.32%, other current debt increased by 19 in ten years.28%, net operating cash flow increased by 13.99%, the overall operating quality is extremely good.In addition, it is worth noting that the company gradually continues to promote the second transformation on the basis of the strategic leadership of “product leadership, efficiency-driven, global operations”, strives for change in multiple dimensions such as products, channels and brands, and uses a dynamic governance structure and the pursuit of efficiency.The spiritual 南宁桑拿 core will bring broad development prospects for the company. Proactive transformation and eager to embrace change, maintaining the company’s “Buy” rating: based on multi-business lines to maintain balanced development and structural upgrades to achieve sustainable development, the company’s revenue in 2019 is still expected to achieve steady growth, and the profit expansion “scissors gap” effect continues to appearThe company’s performance will maintain solid double-digit growth.In the long run, benefiting from the continuous advancement of the company’s second transformation, the company’s long-term development space is expected to be further opened. At the same time, under the protection of the industry’s leading equity incentive system, the company’s overall operation to maintain stable performance is worth looking forward to.In summary, the company’s EPS in 2019 and 2020 are expected to be 3 respectively.41, 3.81 yuan, corresponding to the current total of PE is 16.15, 14.47 times, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk reminders: 1. Terminal demand is less than expected; 2. Raw material prices have risen sharply; 3. The company’s internal adjustment effect has fallen short of expectations.


Goldwind Technology (002202): Steady revenue growth, gross profit margin rebounding

Goldwind Technology (002202): Steady revenue growth, gross profit margin rebounding
The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved revenue of 287 in 2018.3 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.3%, net profit attributable to mother 32.200 million, a five-year growth of 5.3%, net profit after deduction is 28.700 million, previously unchanged. Fan sales are steadily increasing, and the gross profit margin is under pressure: In 2018, the company achieved 5861MW of fan sales, an annual increase of 15.34%, of which 2360 units sold 4,360MW, accounting for 59% in 2017.7% increased to 74.4%.Gross profit margin of the company’s fans in 2018 19.2%, a decline of 6 per year.4 fans, the average sales price of fans fell by 2.6%, the cost is increased by 5.At 7%, the low-price orders that have won the bid since 2017 have been delivered in a concentrated manner, while the price of raw materials has remained high, which is the main reason for the decline in the gross profit margin of fans.In 2018, the company’s main 2MW sample gross margin was 19.3%, year-on-year decrease of 6 units, the average implementation price of 3300 yuan / kw, year-on-year decrease of 5 units, of which the gross profit margin of 2MW units in the second half of 2018 17.2%, the execution price is reduced by 6 per year.At 6%, the gross profit 杭州夜网 margin bottomed out. Market share increased, gross profit margin expected to bottom out: According to Bloomberg New Energy data, the company’s domestic market hoisting volume in 20186.7GW, with a market share of 32%.In 2019, the company will execute the low-price orders for the ten years of 2018, and the gross margin pressure in the first half of the year is still under pressure.Looking at the bidding market, fan prices have bottomed out since the fourth quarter of 2018, and the bidding prices in December rose 3-5% from the September lows.In the context of the industry recovery, it is expected that there will be no room for the price to continue to decline. Driven by the rebound in prices and costs, the company’s gross profit margin for fans is expected to bottom out in the third quarter of 2019. Steady growth of wind power 返回码: 500 网站打不开?重查 operation and significant increase in utilization hours: In 2018, the company’s wind direction expanded and coexisted with a grid capacity of 4,720 MW, benefiting from improved power restrictions in the Northwest and the successive commissioning of southern projects.Up to 250 hours.The company ‘s 34% equity installed capacity is located in the northwestern region. The northwestern consumption has continued to improve, and the utilization hours will continue to increase. Profit forecast: The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.83, 1.17 and 1.38 yuan, maintain BUY rating. Risk reminder: Wind power replenishment installed exceeds expectations, cost reduction exceeds expectations


Jiashitang (002462): Performance Meets Expectations Foreign Port Business Maintains Rapid Development

Jiashitang (002462): Performance Meets Expectations Foreign Port Business Maintains Rapid Development

Investment Highlights Event: Jiashitang released its 2018 annual report, which states that the company achieved operating income of 179.

60,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.

1%; net profit attributable to mother 3.

28 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.

3%; net profit attributable to mother after deduction of 3

24 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.

7%.

Opinion: The company’s performance is compounded by our expectations.

Among them, Q4 achieved revenue of 480,000 yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 19.
.

4%; net profit is 0.

6.7 billion, an annual increase of 6%; the growth rate in the single quarter was primarily due to the increase in sales expenses.

In 2018, the company’s overall gross profit margin, after deducting the additional expense rate, was 10.

23% and 5.

57%, 53bp and 17bp higher than last year, respectively, showing a slight increase in profitability.

The net interest rate is 3.

18%, a decrease of 12bp, mainly due to the significant drag on financial costs.

In terms of operations, the company’s revenue turnover days and operating cycles were 114 days and 91 days respectively, which remained stable overall.

By region, the Beijing area realized income of 80.

900 million, an increase of 10 in ten years.

8%; 武汉夜网论坛 Out-of-town area realized 95% of income.

400 million, an annual increase of 37.

5%; It is mainly due to the high growth of national equipment business revenue.

The equipment business has maintained rapid development, among which the equipment wholesale business has grown strongly: we count the company’s equipment subsidiaries to achieve a total revenue of about 106.

700 million (excluding internal compensation), an annual increase of about 33%; some device platform companies Jiashi Weizhong, Jiashi Guorun total revenue of 35.

800 million, a 68% increase in ten years.

In the second half of the year, the company supplemented and merged Fujian Jiashi Minyitong and Shaanxi Jiashi Qianrui Joint Venture Company to further improve the coverage of the national equipment sales network.

Dingzeng is expected to significantly enhance the company’s strength and accelerate the company’s external business development.

At the end of 2018, the company issued a fixed increase plan. It plans to issue no more than 41.18 million shares to the major shareholder, China Everbright Group, to supplement the working capital. The raised amount is capped at 1.5 billion.Shares ratio increased to 28.

47%, become shareholders of the company, the shareholding ratio has been improved, the stability of the equity structure can ensure the company’s long-term sustainable development; at the same time, the increase of working capital will reduce the company’s compensation rate and financial costs, and the company’s business expansion is expectedSpeed up further.

Earnings forecast and investment advice: For the time being, we do not consider the dilution of equity caused by the additional issuance. We expect the company’s earnings to be 1 in 2019-2020.

64 yuan, 2.

00 yuan and 2.

40 yuan, currently expected to correspond to only 10 times in 2019, far lower than the company’s historical average valuation, and significantly exceed the current overall level of pharmaceutical business performance; we give the company 15-20 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a target interval of 24

6-32.

8 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk alert event: business development in foreign ports is not up to expectations, and the risk of price reduction of equipment affected by industry policies;


China National Travel Service (601888): An in-depth analysis and overview of the broader city tax-free market

China National Travel Service (601888): An in-depth analysis and overview of the broader city tax-free market

The main points of investment are generally two types of duty-free shops in the city, with different targets and specific policies.

(1) Duty-free shops in the city before departure; (2) Duty-free shops in the city after entry; (3) Duty-free shops in outlying islands.

  South Korea is the world’s largest duty-free market. The Chinese and their own nationals contribute 73% and 21%, respectively. Generally, they need to draw on their own advanced experience and attract them to return to consumption.

In 2018, Korea’s duty-free sales reached approximately 110 billion U.S. dollars, making it the world’s largest duty-free market. Among them, the sales of duty-free shops in the city accounted for over 80%, and the highest annual store efficiency and annual floor efficiency exceeded 240 billion and 3 million yuan, respectively.
The tax-free business in South Korea is targeted at both foreigners and nationals. Among them, (1) Chinese tourists contribute the most, accounting for 73% of consumption, and the per capita consumption is nearly 1.

8 million. Therefore, Korea is a country where the country needs to focus on attracting consumption backflow. (2) The proportion of domestic consumption in South Korea is not low, reaching 21%, and the purchase rate of Koreans with tax-free purchase qualifications has reached 70%, per capita.The shopping amount is 3 of the corresponding data for developing countries.

56 times, in addition to 杭州桑拿网 the high per capita GDP of South Korea, mainly because the duty-free shops in South Korea are open to South Korean citizens and shopping allowances of up to 3,000 US dollars.

  Tax exemption in the city before the country leaves the country: It will then become the first line of defense to intercept the demand for tax-free shopping by Chinese. The China Exemption with the sole license will fully benefit.

Currently, only China Duty Free has the operating qualification of duty-free shops in the city before leaving the country. In May 2019, China Free Duty Activated Beijing, Qingdao, Xiamen and Dalian licenses and set up duty-free shops. According to the Shanghai Municipal Government, Shanghai StoreComing soon.

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Commerce, the duty-free shops in the city will be gradually opened to 杭州桑拿网 Chinese people before entering the country; and the Shanghai government proposes to increase the duty-free quota for entry and exit from 8,000 yuan to 1.

30,000 yuan.

If the policy is liberalized, the duty-free shops in the city before departure will be the first line of defense for intercepting tax-free consumption by Chinese, and China Free Trade, as the sole licensee, will fully benefit.

We used different methods to calculate the duty-free shops in Shanghai and Beijing before leaving the country. It is estimated that two years after the policy was released to Chinese people, the total revenue of duty-free shops in Shanghai and Beijing before leaving the country may total 15 billion and 20 billion.The deducted non-attributed net interest rate may exceed 10%.

  Tax exemption in the city after entry: At present, only a number of companies have qualifications. If it can replace the merger of licenses, China Exemption Group will achieve full license operation.

After entering the city, the duty-free shops in the city have an independent shopping limit of 5,000 yuan. At present, there are two licenses in China: (1) Medium-duty service: there are currently 11 duty-free shops (7 in-city stores and 4 port stores).5 new city stores and 1 port store were newly added; (2) China Overseas Chinese: There is only one imported city store in Harbin, which is the subsidiary holding company of China Travel Group and China Travel.

According to the information provided by the service, the annual tax-free sales in the city after the entry and exit in 2018 was about 800 million yuan.

At present, China’s exemption of ownership alone lacks the tax-free license in the city after entry. If it is integrated, China’s exemption will achieve full license operation.

  Outlying island tax exemption: China Exemption will control the Hainan outlying island tax exemption market, and many factors have prompted its new round of growth.

At present, only Hainan and Hainan have the duty-free operating licenses for outlying islands in Hainan. With the joint efforts of certain companies, Hainan’s duty-free industry has achieved rapid development. In 2018, the scale of duty-free in Sanya and Haikou reached 77.

71 and 23.

2.9 billion.

Outlying island tax-free tickets = number of outlying island tourists * proportion of outlying islands tax-free covered people * shop-in rate * shopping rate * customer unit price. As subsequent indicators have upward driving factors, Hainan outlying island tax-free is expected to enter a new round of growth.

Subject to the successful acquisition of Haiwai by China National Tourism Administration, China Waiver will control the Hainan outlying island tax-free market.

  Earnings forecast and rating: China National Travel Service is the leading white horse leader in the tourism sector that we have recommended from the end of 2016 to the present. After the gradual release of tax-free policies in the city, overseas tax-free consumption has gradually accelerated. As a tax-free giant with a market share of over 85%,The company will fully benefit, and we continue to be optimistic about the future development of the company.

  We expect the company’s attributable net profit for 2019-2021 to be 47.

91/51.

15/58.

79 trillion, EPS is 2 respectively.

45/2.

62/3.

01, the PE corresponding to the closing price on May 29 is 31.

3/29.

3/25.

5 times, for a period of time “prudent increase” rating.

  Risk reminders: (1) policy risks; (2) exchange rate risks; (3) less-than-expected advancement of duty-free shops in the city; (4) intensified market competition.


Mengjie Co. (002397): 2018 New Home Retail Industry’s Steady Growth in New Growth

Mengjie Co. (002397): 2018 New Home Retail Industry’s Steady Growth in New Growth

In the context of the recovery of home textile demand in 2018, the company’s endogenous and outreach efforts continued to strengthen the improvement of product strength and service quality. Revenue from home textile business increased by 27%; however, due to the impact of generous sleep exports, overall revenue increased by 19%.

The effect of expected fee improvement on the profit side is better than that on the income side.

In 2019, the company’s home textile business will actively promote new retail, strong service, and strong systems. It will expand resources and expand the scale online. While sinking through the Mengjie store offline, it will continue to build a full-brand living hall in supplementary channels.,Enhance brand image.

At the same time, generous sleep is gradually expanding through domestic sales channels, and the decline in income is expected to ease.

The merger control fee improvement effect was further released, and it is expected that the profit 北京夜网 elasticity in 2019 will further increase.

At present, the total market value is US $ 4.4 billion, corresponding to 19PE25X, maintaining the level of “Prudent Recommendation-A”.

The main business of home textiles has grown steadily in 2018, and the expected increase in fees will increase the elasticity of net profit attributable to mothers.

In 2018, the company’s operating income / operating profit / net profit / net profit attributable to mothers were 23 respectively.

08 billion / 1.

19ppm / 0.

9.3 billion / 0.

8.4 billion yuan, with annual growth rates of 19.

35% / 22.

90% / 14.

66% / 64.

61%, achieving a profit of 0.

11 yuan, the distribution plan is 1 for every 10 shares.

5 yuan (including tax).

Calculated by quarter, 2018Q4 realized operating income / operating profit / net profit / net 上海夜网论坛 attributable to the mother is 8 respectively.

6.2 billion (+15.

79%) / 850,000 yuan (reversal of losses) / 109.1 million yuan (shortened quotas narrowed) / -1143 (largely reduced quotas).

Under the influence of a high base, the growth rate of the main textile industry in 2019Q1 is expected to be obvious.

2019Q1 revenue / operating profit / net profit / net attributable net profit are 5 respectively.

55ppm / 63.57 million yuan / 56.75 million yuan / 57.29 million yuan, the increase rate was 6 respectively.

94% / 6.

40% /-2.

20% / 12.

58%.

Overall revenue increased by 19% in 2018, surpassing expectations.

1) Sustained endogenous expansion of home textile business drives revenue growth27.

5%, of which single digits of online income dropped to 1.

Above 8 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 8% of revenue; internal business and extension of offline business (net increase of 365 stores in 2018 to about 3300) driven by a 30% + increase in revenue.

2) Generous sleep accounted for a relatively high proportion of foreign trade, and income decreased by the impact of the Sino-US trade war31.

61% to 1.

8.2 billion, generous sleep will shift to domestic sales in the future.

The high base of home textiles and generous sleep disturbances affect the growth of revenue in Q1 2019 by nearly 7%.

Among them, the revenue of home textiles increased by more than 10%. Considering that Q1 is a low season for opening stores, it basically contributed to the same store growth.

Generous sleep income is still presented. The effect of fee control and efficiency improvement has gradually improved, and profitability has increased in 2018. 1) Affected by the increase in home textile promotions, increased terminal discounts, and the decline in generous sleep gross profit margin, the company’s gross profit margin decreased in 2018.

43pct to 42.

75%.

2) The fees are strictly controlled, and the cost rate during the period decreases year by year2.

51pct to 35.

2%, of which the sales expense ratio / management expense ratio / financial expense ratio are -2.

46% / + 0.

25% /-0.

29%, the decline in sales expense ratio was mainly due to the company’s use of information system upgrades to strengthen the refined management of terminal channels and improve the effectiveness of marketing activities.

3) The accrued amount of asset impairment losses in 2018 increased by 27.36 million yuan, mainly due to the increase in impairment losses on sold financial assets (17.27 million yuan), increase in bad debt losses (7.39 million yuan), and impairment of good sleep goodwill (3.68 million yuan)Yuan).

4) Affected by the growth of generous sleep performance, the profit and loss of minority shareholders decreased by 21.28 million yuan in 2018.

In summary, the net profit attributable to mothers increased by 64 in 2018.

61%, significantly faster than revenue growth.

The decrease in gross profit margin in Q1 2019 was greater than the decrease in expense ratio during the period, and the net profit margin decreased slightly.

Affected by factors such as increased terminal promotion efforts, product structure changes, and the rapid development of the low-margin Mengjie store, the gross profit margin dropped8.

09% to 38.

44%, during which the expense ratio fell by 7.

05pct to 26.

2%.

The scale of inventories and accounts receivable increased at the end of 18 years, but there was a downward trend at the end of 19Q1.

Maximize cash flow conditions.

At the end of 2018, the company’s inventory scale reached 7.

$ 8.5 billion, an annual increase of 10.

20%; the size of accounts receivable reaches 4.

1.8 billion, down by 1 every year.

26%.

In terms of cash flow, net cash flow from operating activities in 2018 reached 1.

94 trillion, an increase of 91.97 million a year.

At the end of 19Q1, the company’s operating conditions were benign, and its inventory fell earlier.

48% to 7.

7.4 billion; the size of accounts receivable decreased by 7 compared with the beginning of the year.

7% to 3.

8.6 billion yuan.

Net cash flow from operating activities was 1.

04 trillion, an increase of 1 over the same period of 18 years.

2.6 billion.

In 2019, the company’s strategic focus will be on new retail, strong service, and strong systems to improve profitability and operating efficiency.

1) Distribution of channels and new retail: In 2019, the company will focus on franchising channels, and the stores will sink to cities or communities in the third and fourth tiers and below, with approximately 1,600 Mengjie small stores above 50 square meters.

At the same time, through the “One House Good Goods” platform to strengthen interaction with customers and empower offline channels.

2) Quick wash service layout: “Seven Star Wash” is located in high-end shopping malls on the basis of high-end wash factories, and “I * wash” quick terminal layout to achieve basic coverage of the company’s offline stores. 3) Strengthen information system integration and intelligent upgrades, and implement retail management, supply chain management and internal management systems to improve operational efficiency.

Profit forecast and investment recommendations: In the context of the recovery of home textile demand in 2018, the company’s endogenous and extensional efforts will continue to strengthen the improvement of product power and service quality. The income of home textile business will increase by 27%;19%.

The effect of expected fee improvement on the profit side is better than that on the income side.

In 2019, the company’s home textile business will actively promote new retail, strong service, and strong systems. It will expand resources and expand the scale online. While sinking through the Mengjie store offline, it will continue to build a full-brand living hall in supplementary channels.,Enhance brand image.
At the same time, generous sleep is gradually expanding through domestic sales channels, and the decline in income is expected to ease.

The merger control fee improvement effect was further released, and it is expected that the profit elasticity in 2019 will further increase.

According to recent financial reports and equity incentive performance guidance, the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.

22 yuan, 0.

30 yuan, 0.

35 yuan, corresponding to 19PE25X, 20PE19X, maintaining the level of “prudent recommendation-A”.

Risk warning: New businesses such as Mengjie’s small shop and home services are not up to expectations.