Boss Electric (002508) In-depth report: Gradually stepping out of the bottom of the cycle and looking forward to “performance + estimation” Davis double click
How to cross the cycle from 2010 to 2016?The reasons for the revenue end of the cycle are: 1. Kitchen appliances is a growth industry with an annual growth rate of 16%; 2. The company’s share continues to increase; 3. The average ex-factory price has increased by approximately 3% per year;The 南京桑拿网 reasons are: 1. Channel dividends and higher profit margin channel revenue share increased; 2. Fully benefit from the large cycle of falling raw material prices; 3. Benefit from channel structure changes and scale effects, the sales expense ratio has dropped significantly. Why no longer cross the cycle in 2017-2018?1. The scale and time of the second-tier real estate released this time reached the highest in history; 2. The channel dividend is no longer and the growth rate of high-margin channels is weakening; 3. The price of raw materials has risen sharply. The industry prosperity is expected to rebound in 2019-2020, and in the long run, the kitchen appliance market is expected to be 4 times the current scale.Short-term: first- and second-line kitchen appliances market: 2018.After April, sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities have picked up, and the trend continues.The third- and fourth-line kitchen appliances market: 2019-2029 does not need to be too pessimistic, the completion of improvement and core brand penetration is still low are the core reasons.Long-term: The long-term potential market size of the kitchen appliance industry is expected to be around 400 billion, and the industry retail sales growth rate in the next 10 years is expected to be between 10% and 15%. Look at the company’s core competitiveness from the brand, channel and product side.The company’s core competitiveness is mainly reflected in the popular high-end brand image and excellent brand publicity experience, a comprehensive three-dimensional channel structure and the ability to quickly adjust channel trends, intelligent manufacturing capabilities in leading industries, and continuous improvement of product development levels;Analysis and calculation of the company’s future growth.Through separate calculation of smoke stoves and embedded categories, the company’s revenue growth center is expected to be 15 in the next 15 years.About 2%.On the profit side, there are several advantages: 1. Raw material prices may enter a large cycle of decline; 2. Embedded product production and adjustment of sales channels; 3. Channels tend to be transformed and channel profits are released; 4.Under the effect of scale, production efficiency increased, and the expense ratio further decreased.It is expected 深圳桑拿网 that the long-term company will still be able to maintain a profit margin level of more than 20% at this stage. Investment suggestion: It is expected that the company’s EPS for 2018-2020 will be 1.56 yuan, 1.79 yuan, 2.10 yuan; the corresponding PE is 20 respectively.1, 17.5, 14.9. Maintain “Buy” rating risk warning: demand is below expectations, raw material prices continue to rise