Xinlitai (002294): Intensify innovation and outreach to cope with policy changes
The company reported annual operating income of 46.
5 billion (+11.
99%), net profit attributable to mother 14.
600 million (+0.
44%), deducting non-net profit 14.
0 billion (+0.
The growth was in line with expectations. The growth rate of revenue decreased by 2pp compared with the first three quarters, and remained stable; the growth rate of non-net profit decreased by 3pp, which was basically flat.
Compared with last year’s nominal, gross margin was -1.
4pp, sales expense ratio + 1pp, management plus R & D expense ratio + 1pp, resulting in revenue growth and flat profits.
Clopidogrel maintains a steady growth. It is estimated that last year, clopidogrel maintained a slightly higher growth rate of 10% and entered the Guangdong market. With the aging of the domestic population, the amount of PCI surgery is far from being saturated in Europe and the United States.Annual domestic PCI surgery volume is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 15%.
The main specifications of 25mg and 75mg were the first to pass the consistency assessment. At the end of last year, the “4 + 7 quantity purchase” won the bid. The drug consumption in 4 + 7 cities accounted for about 20% of the total drug consumption.The growth and growth of the industry itself is expected to remain stable this year.
With the advancement of 杭州夜生活网 volume procurement in the future, it may lead to a decline within pairs.
New products continue to increase volume, pay attention to the impact of volume purchases. In addition, alisartanate enters the volume phase after entering medical insurance. It is estimated that last year’s sales revenue exceeded 100 million yuan, which continues to explode. Alisartanate as a new drug patent expires in 2028. It will be affected by volume purchases in the future.Smaller, but the price reduction of hypertension drugs will also bring a certain impact; Bivalirudin has also entered a period of rapid growth after years of cultivation. Last year, it entered the local medical insurance directories of 5 provinces and cities, and hospital access continued to refine the target customers.Management, accelerating the penetration of prescriptions, and the continuous growth of sales. As the current market share of bivalirudin is already high, the price drop in the future with volume purchases will have an impact.
After Tigrelor was approved for listing, the hospital 100 has been formally developed to form a complementary synergy with clopidogrel.
Leading the follow-up through the consistency assessment product for at least one year, it has a clear advantage in future volume procurement.
Profit forecast and investment recommendations for companies expected in 2018?
The EPS in 2020 will be 1.
43 yuan, 1.
44 yuan, 1.
47 yuan, corresponding to PE is 16.
9 times, 16.
8 times, 16.
Give a target price of 28.
6 yuan, giving the company an “overweight” rating.
Risk reminder: the impact of procurement with volume, second-tier product volume is less than expected, new product development is less than expected